Friday, November 20, 2009

French bank Société Générale: be ready for economic collapse

Listen to Fox News' Stuart Varney on Société Générale's report"

SocGen's proposed portfolio for a global economic collapse
Posted Nov 19th 2009 11:10AM by Melly Alazraki

French bank Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, The Telegraph reports.

In a 68-page report titled "Worst-Case Debt Scenario," SocGen explains that the rescue packages over the past year have merely transferred private liabilities onto government shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems. Debt levels, public or private, are too high as a share of GDP. The deleveraging process will take years.

SocGen says that under the bear-case scenario, the dollar would continue to decline and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would slide again and oil prices would fall back to $50 in 2010. Public debt would explode within two years, with worldwide state debt reaching $45 trillion. Further, the aging population will make it harder to erode debt through growth. As for the U.S., it could take nine years to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980s.

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